Casino.ca expects sunny outlook for Canadian iGaming in H2
Casino.ca Expert Contributor Lara Wilson outlines her belief that the outlook for the Canadian iGaming sector is looking bright for the remainder of 2026 and beyond, with Alberta’s regulated launch adding to Ontario’s momentum.
Canada has shown itself to be an impressive presence in the global iGaming landscape in recent years. Growth in the country has been sure and steady, fueled by tech developments and player habits.
Now, it’s all change as the country shifts from a one-province regulated model to a multi-province ecosystem. The pace is picking up as Canada’s iGaming market not only expands, but evolves.
The second half of 2026 is likely to be one of the strongest periods yet for Canada’s regulated online casino sector, though for different reasons than those of earlier years. While Ontario is transitioning into a mature, competitive market, another new market is emerging as the primary engine of growth. If this market proves successful, and so far, all signs indicate that it will be, Canada may well be one of the world’s most significant regulated iGaming markets in just a matter of years.
Estimates from Imperium Comms say that the country’s online casino niche is on track to reach around C$9.6bn by the end of the year. As it stands, the overall gambling sector in Canada is thought to be worth C$15.6bn and rising each year. The current positive trajectory can be traced back to the key moment in April 2022, when Ontario launched its open market. In what would prove to be a landmark decision, international iGaming operators were invited to join the province’s regulated market.
Ontario remained an outlier until only recently, when Alberta became the first province to follow suit. This development has marked out the second half of 2026 as the most significant period of structural change in Canada’s online gambling landscape in the last four years. Up to this point, Ontario had been the biggest catalyst for growth in the country. Now its market is handing over its “emerging” descriptor and moving into a more mature phase.
In line with this positive market outlook, competition between operators is likely to intensify. Ontario online casino platforms are increasingly attempting to outdo one another on payment speeds, mobile experience, live dealer offerings, exclusive games, loyalty programs and responsible gaming tools. As a result, customer acquisition costs are rising. Analysts are seeing more consolidation among smaller brands, while pressure to use affiliate and marketing partners is building.
In H2 2026, Ontario will focus more on customer retention than on customer acquisition. Operators in the province will continue to pursue smarter ways of setting themselves apart from the competition, such as offering players more personalized promotions and recommendations. Recent market data shows reliable year-over-year increases in handle, revenue, and active player accounts. Online casino is sure to remain the dominant vertical, as it overwhelmingly has been since the beginning of Ontario’s iGaming market.
While Ontario and Alberta are now working with rather than against private gambling firms, other jurisdictions still rely on a Crown monopoly model in which residents are served by a single regulated iGaming site. This is designed to shelter players from scams and gambling harms, but the lack of competitive choice available means that most players choose to use offshore casinos instead.
As the first jurisdiction to respond to this issue, Ontario has been reaping the benefits. For players, there’s a large selection of safe, secure, and entertaining iGaming sites to choose from. Regulatory oversight means the quality of offerings is consistently high, and that players are protected from harmful practices. Meanwhile, the province can glean valuable revenue from the market, which is funneled into local programs and services.
Provincial expansion remains the major wildcard, and industry participants are paying close attention to which way the wind is blowing. It’s no wonder that other provinces have taken notice of Ontario’s success, and in the end, Alberta was the first to bite. Its open-licensing iGaming market launched on July 13. While based closely on Ontario’s framework, it is not identical.
At the time of the launch, nearly 50 companies had paid their C$200,000 registration and permit fees, although only 22 of those were ready for customers on day one. There is always a rush with any new market launch to get everything ready and in place for the first day of trading. New operators will join, and further adjustments will be made over the coming months, as and when the need arises. This is one important aspect of the country’s iGaming forecast for H2.
If Alberta achieves channelization rates similar to Ontario, analysts expect to see rapid revenue growth over the next 18 to 24 months. The local area will see significant increases in tax revenue, as well as more investment from international gaming companies. The provincial government is predicting an additional C$76m for its coffers. In the space of a few years, Alberta could become a billion-dollar annual market.
Success in Alberta could encourage additional provinces to seriously consider revamping their own frameworks. However, no national rollout of the open-licensing model is guaranteed.
A more immediate concern for operators in Canada during the months to come is compliance. Regulators are continuing to hone in on responsible gambling rules. Firms that invest in compliance and are attentive to advertising restrictions, player protections, anti-money laundering controls, affordability measures, and age verification will be better positioned in the long term.
Industry estimates remain optimistic despite the rising costs associated with compliance. Ontario is sure to remain the leading regulated iGaming market in Canada, although the coming years will see meaningful incremental growth build in Alberta. Canada’s overall regulated iGaming market is forecast to continue expanding at a strong annual pace over the next several years, assuming regulation remains stable and migration from offshore operators continues.
In six months, when we look back at 2026, Alberta is sure to be the main headline. That’s for good reason too, as it marks a turning point in Canada’s multi-market landscape. For the time being, Ontario can still be regarded as Canada’s main anchor, although national growth is accelerating. H2 won’t end with any other new markets following Alberta and Ontario; the pace of change is slower than that.
Nevertheless, this is a pivotal time as other jurisdictions look to cash in on iGaming and fears over private markets are allayed.
