The federal regulatory body that oversees trading activity on Canada’s equity marketplaces says it has approved multiple firms to start offering prediction markets.
The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) stated in an announcement posted on March 26 that it has authorized two Investment Dealer Members to facilitate trading in event contracts. Those two companies are Interactive Brokers Canada, which was approved to offer predictions last year, and Toronto-based financial services and technology firm Wealthsimple, which recently received the green light.
Those firms can offer “a limited set of event contracts” that are traded and cleared through certain U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated exchanges and clearinghouses. Companies authorized by the CFTC to offer event contract exchanges include Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com.
CIRO said that it provided the update “in response to growing interest among market participants and investors in prediction markets and event contracts.”
Politics and sports? No Canada do
The Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) banned any entities from advertising, offering and trading “binary options” in 2017, but there is an exemption for CIRO’s approved members.
CIRO stated in its release that event contract trading is subject to certain terms and conditions imposed by CIRO, in consultation with CSA members, as well as CIRO’s requirements regarding options trading. In particular, it stressed that certain categories of event contracts remain prohibited and may not be offered, traded, or facilitated by Dealer Members.
Those include event contracts based on the outcome of elections or other political events such as party leaders’ nominations or referendum results. CIRO members also may not offer event contracts “based on the outcome of unlawful activities under Canadian federal, provincial or territorial law.”
Interactive Brokers does not offer sports trading. Per the Globe and Mail, neither will Wealthsimple.
The terms and conditions noted by CIRO in the release state that only contracts involving “economic forecasts,” “environment forecasts” or “financial indicators” are allowed. All prediction markets must have maturity dates of 30 days or longer, meaning they must take at least a month to resolve.
“CIRO and the CSA continue to monitor developments with prediction markets and event contracts and intend to issue further guidance which could result in the imposition of further restrictions,” added the regulator in the announcement.
Not like the US
In the U.S., the “developments” have been massive. Companies such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com all now offer a range of sports event contracts, and online gambling leaders including FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics, PrizePicks and Underdog have all jumped into the market with prediction markets.
While the legality of event contracts, particularly those that mimic state-regulated sports betting, continues to be contested in numerous courts across the U.S., in Canada, the situation is somewhat clearer.
For now, at least. Canada’s securities regulator bans yes/no binary contracts that resolve in less than a month, greatly reducing the scope of the potential market. Law firm Segev LLP notes that as event contracts resemble gambling at one level and financial derivatives at another, they run into “overlapping gambling and securities regimes” that severely restrict their operation. By contrast, the U.S. has begun to recognize prediction markets as a legitimate part of the derivatives sector under the CFTC.
“In Canada, the legal framework governing prediction markets remains highly restrictive,” added Segev. “Federal gambling prohibitions under the Criminal Code, combined with the CSA’s ban on binary options, leave little room for independent platforms to operate.”
Kalshi officially bans Canadians from accessing its platform. Polymarket was fined by the Ontario Securities Commission and banned from trading in Ontario for two years in April 2025 for offering event contracts including sports and politics markets to Ontarians, in violation of the prohibition on short-term binary options. However, Canadians outside of Ontario are still able to access Polymarket’s global site.
“Canadians should avoid using platforms that do not comply with Canadian securities and derivatives laws and are not registered with or recognized by a Canadian securities regulator,” the CSA told CTV News, amid the news of Wealthsimple’s approval.
Even without politics or sports available, other Canadian companies could get on board the prediction markets train. The Globe and Mail reports that Questrade, Canada’s largest independent online brokerage, hopes to get CIRO approval to launch prediction markets as soon as this summer.
