Once established and mature, Ontario's sports betting market will yield more than $900 million in online sports betting revenue alone by 2026, predicts a new extensive Canadian Online Gambling Tracker Special Report from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.
Chris Krafcik, managing director of sports betting and emerging verticals for the gaming research company, told The Parleh: "For commercial operators, populous Ontario is the most important — and, for now, the only — market entry opportunity in Canada... Assuming most of the largest Ontario-facing offshore operators elect to participate in Ontario's legal market, we expect that market will ramp up rapidly."
The report, co-authored by Krafcik and various experts at Eilers & Krejcik, as well as Parleh editor-in-chief Steve McAllister, projected that Ontario will generate online sports betting gross gaming revenue (GGR) of $570 million in 2022, rising to $904 million in 2026. That would see Ontario account for about half of total online sports betting GGR across the 2022-26 period.
The report conservatively predicts around 40 commercial brands will contest the regulated Ontario online sports betting and online casino and poker markets by 2026.
"We expect a vigorous battle for market share, with Ontario-facing offshore operators that elect to participate in the legal market best positioned to capture material share out of the gate, in our view," added Krafcik. "After all, such operators appear set to enjoy key structural advantages from day one — namely, databases of already-acquired Ontario online gamblers who have money on deposit — that newly launching brands like theScore will not.”
The report further estimates that total Canadian online gambling gross gaming revenue (GGR) will total $4.4 billion in 2026, with sports accounting for 41 per cent of that figure. Canada's 10 provinces are expected to combine for a total online sports betting GGR of $1.2 billion in 2022, rising to $1.8 billion in 2026.
Meanwhile, it estimates that the provinces will generate combined online casino and poker GGR of $1.9 billion in 2022, rising to $2.6 billion in 2026. Ontario is expected to account for just under half of that, reaching $813 million in gross revenue in 2022 and $1.3 billion in 2026.
Eilers & Krejcik stresses that its outlook is based on a province-by-province assessment of likely comparative tax rates, competition levels, income, demographics, and sports fandom. It also rests on several assumptions and caveats, including the assumption that Ontario will continue to be the only province to allow commercial operators to offer online gambling in the foreseeable future, and that commercial operators will launch in Ontario in Q1 of 2022.
Read the full report, including all predictions, assumptions, and caveats, here.